Next month marks three years since a China Eastern jet plunged into a hillside killing 132 people, with relatives still waiting to learn what caused China’s deadliest air crash in three decades.
It is one of dozens of accidents worldwide in which investigators have yet to issue a final report designed to help prevent new accidents, despite a target of one year.
While recent deadly crashes in Kazakhstan, South Korea and the United States and the non-fatal flip of a crash-landed jet in Canada have thrust safety into the spotlight, the industry is worried that too many past accidents remain unresolved.
According to airlines, almost half of 268 accidents involving fatalities or major damage between 2018 and the end of 2023 lacked a final report.
“That’s a really big concern,” said Mark Searle, head of safety at the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
“The lessons that we learn from accident reports are absolutely critical to avoid future events.”
Aviation safety has improved markedly over decades based on open sharing of information, with investigations intended to draw lessons rather than assign blame.
The “brace position” for emergency landings, for example, was refined over years thanks to such investigations. By pure chance, the least injured person in a fatal 1976 crash in New Jersey had his head between his knees due to air sickness.
Technology to avoid collisions, the importance of not inflating life jackets inside planes and improved seat design are all lessons learned from past crashes.
Coordinated by the U.N.’s International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), global guidelines call for an initial report in 30 days and a final one ideally within a year. Failing that, investigators should issue statements on each anniversary.
But in a recent paper, IATA and six other aviation bodies raised the alarm over delayed or non-existent final reports.
“I think a number are being held up at the political government level because they are narratives that perhaps they are not too keen to hit the public eye,” Searle said.
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Others blame judicial interference or a shortage of resources for independent investigations in many countries.
The warning comes as social media has transformed how the public interact with air disasters.
Fuelled by statements from U.S. President Donald Trump that January’s mid-air collision in Washington stemmed from diversity policies and a helicopter flying too high, a flurry of rumours circulated online about pilot identities and accident causes.
It is often only when publicity fades that forensic work can unlock the multiple factors in an accident, experts say.
The resulting final reports carry particular weight because they are based on validated data.
Three years on, however, the China Eastern crash remains shrouded in speculation and no final report has been published – only a preliminary one and two anniversary updates.
At three and seven paragraphs long, these contain scant data compared to other major accidents, such as the 150-page interim statement Japan published on a fatal collision in January 2024.