SINGAPORE: Asian stocks fell and the dollar was steady on Tuesday as investors braced for a cut in U.S. interest rates later this week while the yen was calm after a powerful earthquake rocked Japan’s northeast region though the impact was limited.
Investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of a slew of central bank meetings, including a looming decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia on the day, as markets look for a clearer picture of the outlook for global interest rates.
The RBA, SNB and Bank of Canada are all expected to hold rates steady this week, while the Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower borrowing costs on Wednesday.
The spotlight though is on what comes after the Fed’s December rate cut, with bond investors positioning for a shallow U.S. easing cycle. Many Wall Street banks predict fewer Fed interest rate cuts in 2026 on lingering inflation concerns and expectations of a more resilient U.S. economy.
That has left stocks trading sideways. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.28% lower after a weak overnight session on Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei eased 0.08% , while South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.58%.
“The low-hanging fruit from risk management cuts is likely over and Chair (Jerome) Powell’s presser is likely to convey a more cautious approach going forward regarding additional policy recalibration,” said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities.
“The dot plot is likely to show one cut in 2026. In the instance the dot plot shows two cuts for next year this would be dovish.”
While a rate cut is expected, some strategists think the Fed’s policy committee could be sharply divided.
The meeting will also be held amid heightened market interest on who will succeed Powell as Fed Chair when his term ends in May next year. White House Economic Adviser and top contender for the Fed Chair role Kevin Hassett that the Fed should continue to lower interest rates.
Traders are pricing in 77 basis points of easing by the end of next year, according to LSEG data.
David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, expects the Fed will likely raise the bar for further rate cuts, noting there will be dissenters among the committee for further easing and Powell will be cautious. “But the FOMC cannot box itself in too much, especially at a time when we are two employment reports out of date, because a January cut could turn out to be appropriate.”
Asian chip stocks wobbled after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States will allow Nvidia’s H200 processors, its second-best artificial intelligence chips, to be exported to China and collect a 25% fee on such sales. China’s CSI Semiconductor Industry Index was down about 1% in early trading.
In currencies, the dollar was mostly steady on Tuesday. The euro last bought $1.1640 while sterling was steady at $1.33225. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was at 99.09. The index is down nearly 9% this year, on pace for its biggest annual decline since 2017.
The Australian dollar was steady at $0.6625 ahead of the RBA policy decision later in the day where the central bank is expected to stand pat on rates, although markets have been fretting about possible hawkish cues in its commentary.
The yen was little changed at 155.87 per dollar in early Asian hours after weakening immediately after the earthquake. Japanese authorities lifted tsunami warnings on Tuesday hours after a 7.5-magnitude earthquake shook northeastern regions, injuring at least 30 people and forcing about 90,000 residents to evacuate their homes.
In commodities, gold was 0.13% higher at $4194.11 per ounce ahead of the Fed meeting. Oil prices steadied after diving 2% in the previous session as market participants kept a close eye on peace talks to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Brent crude futures were flat at $62.48 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $58.84, down 0.07%.
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