Pakistan is expected to maintain a comfortable fertiliser supply position for both the ongoing Rabi 2025–26 season and the upcoming Kharif 2026 cycle, with official projections indicating no risk of shortages despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
A latest situation report issued by the Ministry of National Food Security and Research highlights that domestic production, supplemented by targeted imports, continues to meet national requirements with a built-in buffer. The fertiliser sector is currently producing enough to cover roughly 90 to 95 percent of total urea demand, with imports filling the remaining gap.
The report underscores that stock buffers equivalent to 5 to 10 percent of seasonal demand are in place, ensuring supply continuity even under stress scenarios. However, it cautions that sustained gas availability of 700 to 800 million cubic feet per day remains critical to maintaining production stability.
During the current Rabi season, urea availability has surpassed 3.5 million tons against an estimated demand of about 3.3 million tons, leaving a surplus of 150,000 to 200,000 tons. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) supplies have also remained ahead of demand, crossing 700,000 tons compared to consumption needs of around 650,000 tons.
Looking ahead to Kharif 2026, urea availability is projected between 3 and 3.2 million tons, slightly exceeding expected demand of 2.9 to 3 million tons. Similarly, DAP supplies are forecast at 750,000 to 800,000 tons, ensuring a buffer of 50,000 to 100,000 tons over anticipated demand of roughly 700,000 tons.
The pricing environment has remained relatively stable domestically. Urea is currently priced between Rs3,700 and Rs4,000 per 50kg bag, significantly lower than international levels ranging from Rs5,500 to Rs6,000. DAP prices in the local market stand between Rs11,500 and Rs12,500 per bag, compared to over Rs14,000 globally.
Pakistan’s fertiliser industry has a total urea production capacity of around 7 million tons annually. Key contributors include Fauji Fertiliser Company with more than 2.5 million tons capacity, Engro Fertilisers at approximately 2.3 million tons, and Fatima Fertiliser producing between 700,000 and 800,000 tons. Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim primarily supports DAP production with a capacity of about 650,000 tons.
The sector relies heavily on natural gas, consuming nearly 700 to 800 mmcfd. Around 60 to 65 percent of production depends on supply from Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited, while the remaining output is supported through dedicated or diverted gas sources. Even in cases where one or two plants temporarily shut down, the system retains the capacity to meet over 85 to 90 percent of national demand.
Consumption trends indicate steady growth. Urea usage has risen from about 6 million tons five years ago to nearly 6.8 to 7 million tons currently, reflecting an annual growth rate of 2 to 3 percent. DAP consumption has increased more rapidly, climbing from roughly 1.1 million tons to around 1.4 million tons, translating into a growth rate of 4 to 5 percent.
On a seasonal basis, Rabi accounts for 55 to 60 percent of annual urea consumption, driven largely by wheat cultivation. In contrast, Kharif dominates DAP usage, contributing nearly 60 percent of yearly demand.
Pakistan’s agricultural footprint spans approximately 22 to 23 million hectares annually. Wheat remains the dominant Rabi crop, cultivated over about 9 million hectares, while gram and oilseeds cover an additional 2 to 3 million hectares. During Kharif, rice is grown on roughly 3 million hectares, cotton on 2 to 2.5 million hectares, and sugarcane on more than 1.2 million hectares.
The ministry concluded that the fertiliser ecosystem remains stable, well-managed, and capable of supporting the country’s agricultural output trajectory, even amid external supply chain uncertainties.
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