The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday said it is closely tracking the Iran war and the resulting disruptions to global energy supplies, cautioning that prolonged high energy prices could fuel inflation and weigh on growth worldwide.
Julie Kozack, IMF spokesperson, told reporters that the conflict has already caused major disruptions to seaborne oil and natural gas shipments, driving crude oil prices up by more than 50% to above $100 per barrel. European gas prices have also jumped roughly 35% following strikes on a Qatar LNG hub.
While no formal requests for emergency financing have been received, the IMF stands ready to assist member countries if needed. Kozack said IMF officials are actively engaging with finance ministers, central bankers, and regional institutions to assess the situation and coordinate responses.
The IMF plans to factor the conflict into its updated global economic outlook, to be released in mid-April during the IMF-World Bank spring meetings. Kozack cited the fund’s “rule of thumb” that a sustained 10% increase in energy prices over a year typically pushes global inflation up by 40 basis points and reduces output by 0.1–0.2%.
She added that the impact will depend on the war’s duration, intensity, and the ability of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to resume oil and gas exports. Central banks are urged to monitor inflation closely, ensuring that rising energy prices do not destabilize broader inflation expectations.
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