NEW DELHI: India is reportedly considering a significant increase in the amount of water it withdraws from the Indus river system, which supplies water to Pakistan’s agricultural regions downstream. The move is seen as a retaliatory response to a deadly attack on Indian tourists in April that New Delhi attributes to Pakistan, according to four sources familiar with the matter.
Shortly after the April 22 attack that killed 26 civilians in Indian-controlled Kashmir, India suspended its participation in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which regulates water use between the two countries. Although a ceasefire was agreed upon last week after intense fighting, India has kept the treaty “in abeyance.”
Following the attack, Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered a fast-track review and execution of projects on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers — all mainly allocated for Pakistan’s use under the treaty, six officials told Reuters.
One of the major plans involves doubling the length of the Ranbir canal on the Chenab river from 60 km to 120 km. This canal, built in the 19th century before the treaty, runs through India and feeds Pakistan’s Punjab province, a vital agricultural area. The expansion would allow India to divert up to 150 cubic meters of water per second, up from about 40 cubic meters currently. Experts say construction could take years.
The discussions on expanding the canal began last month and continue despite the ceasefire. Indian ministries and the prime minister’s office declined to comment, as did NHPC, India’s major hydropower company managing Indus projects.
Modi recently declared in a speech that “water and blood cannot flow together,” though he did not explicitly mention the treaty. Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said India would keep the treaty suspended until Pakistan completely renounces support for cross-border terrorism.
Pakistan, which relies on the Indus system for about 80 percent of its farms and nearly all its hydropower, condemned the suspension. Its foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, told parliament that Islamabad considers the treaty still valid and called India’s suspension unlawful. Pakistan warned any attempts to block or divert its water would be viewed as an act of war.
While large projects to reduce water flow would take years, Pakistan experienced a sharp drop of up to 90 percent in water at a key site in early May during Indian maintenance on some Indus projects, illustrating the potential pressure India could exert.
World Bank President Ajay Banga, in a recent interview, emphasized that the treaty contains no provision for suspension and can only be changed by mutual agreement. The Indus river system flows through geopolitically sensitive areas, starting in Tibet, passing through India, and then Pakistan before reaching the Arabian Sea.
The IWT is considered one of the most successful water-sharing agreements, having survived multiple wars and tensions. It restricts India mainly to low-impact hydropower on rivers allocated to Pakistan while allowing India free use of the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi rivers.
Besides the Ranbir canal expansion, India is reviewing other projects that could reduce water flow to Pakistan from the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers, including plans to redistribute water across northern Indian states, according to government documents seen by Reuters.
India is also planning to boost hydropower capacity in occupied Jammu and Kashmir from 3,360 megawatts to 12,000 megawatts, with several new dams capable of storing large volumes of water — a first for India on the Indus system.
Experts say India’s focus on the treaty is part of broader efforts to pressure Pakistan over Kashmir. Delhi has narrowed bilateral talks, focusing on limited issues such as the IWT.
Pakistan is preparing to pursue legal action in international forums, including the World Bank and international courts. Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb stressed, “Water should not be weaponised,” and urged the reinstatement of the treaty.
Water security experts warn that using water as a geopolitical tool risks encouraging similar tactics from other regional powers, including China, which could harm India itself in the long run.