OPEC+ will boost oil production by 206,000 barrels per day from April, ending a three-month pause, but analysts say the small increase is unlikely to ease global market concerns as Gulf tensions continue to disrupt shipping.
The decision came as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory actions halted oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil route, which handles more than 20% of global transit. Hundreds of ships remain anchored and immobile since Saturday.
The modest April hike, representing less than 0.2% of global supply, was chosen over options ranging from 137,000 to 548,000 bpd. Analysts noted that spare capacity outside Saudi Arabia and the UAE is limited, and both nations face logistical challenges in exports until Gulf navigation normalises.
Brent crude has surged this year, hitting $73 per barrel on Friday, the highest since July, and trading 8–10% higher around $80 on Sunday as markets react to the conflict. Experts warn prices will follow developments in the Gulf rather than OPEC+ output adjustments.
Sunday’s meeting included eight key OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman — which previously raised production quotas by about 2.9 million bpd from April to December 2025, roughly 3% of global demand, before pausing increases in January–March 2026 due to seasonal weakness.
Market watchers, including Helima Croft of RBC and Barclays analysts, said oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel if hostilities escalate. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that actual barrels added to the market from OPEC+ will likely be only a fraction of the announced quota increase.
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