OPEC+ is expected to agree on Sunday to another modest increase in oil output targets for December, according to three sources familiar with the talks, as the alliance slows its efforts to regain market share amid forecasts of a global supply glut next year.
Since April, OPEC+ has raised its production targets by over 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd), or roughly 2.5% of global supply. However, the group has eased the pace of increases, limiting the hikes for October and November to 137,000 bpd following warnings of potential oversupply.
New Western sanctions on Russia, a key OPEC+ member, have further complicated discussions, as Moscow may find it difficult to expand production under the restrictions.
Eight OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria — are expected to approve another 137,000 bpd hike for December, the sources said, requesting anonymity. A fourth source, however, suggested that a pause in output hikes remained a possibility.
OPEC, the office of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, and Saudi Arabia’s government media office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Oil prices fell to a five-month low of about $60 per barrel on October 20 due to growing concerns of oversupply but have since rebounded to around $65, supported by sanctions on Russia and optimism over trade discussions.
Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners are unlikely to approve any major production increase unless there is clear evidence of a supply disruption, RBC analyst Helima Croft noted in a report this week. She and analysts at Rystad, Commerzbank, and SEB all expect the group to announce a 137,000 bpd increase.
The OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for Sunday at 1400 GMT, one source said.
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